Monte Carlo modelling projects the loss of most land-terminating glaciers on Svalbard in the 21st century under RCP 8.5 forcing

The high Arctic archipelagos around the globe are among the most strongly glacierized landscapes on Earth apart from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Over the past decades, the mass losses from land ice in the high Arctic regions have contributed substantially to global sea level rise. Among these regions, the archipelago of Svalbard showed the smallest mass losses. However, this could change in the coming decades, as Svalbard is expected to be exposed to strong climate warming over the 21st century. Here we present extensive Monte Carlo simulations of the future ice-mass evolution of 29 individual land-terminating glaciers on the Svalbard archipelago under an RCP 8.5 climate forcing. An extrapolation of the 29 sample glaciers to all land-terminating glaciers of the archipelago suggests an almost complete deglaciation of the region by 2100. Under RCP 8.5, 98% of the land-terminating glaciers will have declined to less than one tenth of their initial size, resulting in a loss of 7392 ± 2481 km ^2 of ice coverage

On the errors involved in the estimate of glacier ice volume from ice thickness data

The assessment of the glacier thickness is one of the most widespread applications of radioglaciology, and is the basis for estimating the glacier volume. The accuracy of the measurement of ice thickness, the distribution of profiles over the glacier and the accuracy of the boundary delineation of the glacier are the most important factors determining the error in the evaluation of the glacier volume. The aim of this study is to get an accurate estimate of the error incurred in the estimate of glacier volume from GPR-retrieved ice-thickness data

Ground-penetrating radar surveys and ice volume estimates of Wedel Jarlsberg Land glaciers, Svalbard

We present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for eight glaciers on Wedel Jarlsberg Land, southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard, and compare them to those obtained from area-volume scaling relationships. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 2004-2011

Joint inversion estimate of regional glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica considering a lateral varying Earth structure (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Although much progress has been made in consistently modelling the ice-sheet evolution throughout the last glacial cycle, as well as the induced bedrock deformation caused by these load changes, forward models of GIA remain ambiguous due to the lack of observational constraints on the ice sheet's past extent and thickness and mantle rheology beneath the continent. As an alternative to forward modelling GIA, we estimate GIA from multiple space-geodetic observations: GRACE, Envisat/ICESat and GPS. Making use of the different sensitivities of the respective satellite observations to current and past surface mass (ice mass) change and solid Earth processes, we estimate GIA based on viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing. We calculate and distribute the viscoelastic response functions according to estimates of the variability of lithosphere thickness and mantle viscosity in Antarctica. We compare our GIA estimate with published GIA corrections and evaluate its impact in determining the ice mass balance in Antarctica from GRACE and satellite altimetry. Particular focus is applied to the Amundsen Sea Sector in West Antarctica, where uplift rates of several cm/yr have been measured by GPS. We show that most of this uplift is caused by the rapid viscoelastic response to recent ice-load changes, enabled by the presence of a low-viscosity upper mantle in West Antarctica. This paper presents the second and final contribution summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study, REGINA, (www.regina-science.eu)

Ice volume estimates from ground-penetrating radar surveys, Wedel Jarlsberg Land glaciers, Svalbard

One of the aims of the SvalGlac project is to obtain an improved estimate, with reliable error estimates, of the volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea level rise. As part of this work, we present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for eight glaciers on Wedel Jarlsberg Land, southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 2004-2011. The total area and volume of the ensemble are 502.9±18.6 km2 and 80.72±2.85 km3, respectively. Excluding Ariebreen (a tiny glacier, menor que 0.4 km2 in area), the individual areas, volumes and average ice thickness lie within 4.7-141.0 km2, 0.30-25.85 km3 and 64-183 m, respectively. The maximum recorded ice thickness, ca. 619±13 m, is found in Austre Torellbreen. To estimate the ice volume of small non-echo-sounded tributary glaciers, we used a function providing the best fit to the ice thickness along the centre line of a collection of such tributaries where echo-soundings were available, and assuming parabolic cross-sections. We did some tests on the effect on the measured ice volumes of the distinct radio-wave velocity (RWV) of firn as compared to ice, and cold versus temperate ice, concluding that the changes in volume implied by such corrections were within the error bounds of our volume estimate using a constant RWV for the entire glacier inferred from common mid-point measurements on the upper ablation area

Constraining the mass balance of East Antarctica

We investigate the mass balance of East Antarctica for the period 2003-2013 using a Bayesian statistical framework. We combine satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS with prior assumptions characterizing the underlying geophysical processes. We run three experiments based on two different assumptions to study possible solutions to the mass balance. We solve for trends in surface mass balance, ice dynamics, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The first assumption assigns low probability to ice dynamic mass loss in regions of slow flow, giving a mean dynamic trend of 17 ± 10 Gt yr-1 and a total mass imbalance of 57 ± 20 Gt yr-1. The second assumption considers a long-term dynamic thickening hypothesis and an a priori solution for surface mass balance from a regional climate model. The latter results in estimates 3 to 5 times larger for the ice dynamic trends but similar total mass imbalance. In both cases, gains in East Antarctica are smaller than losses in West Antarctica

Radio-echo sounding and ice volume estimates of western Nordenskiöld Land glaciers, Svalbard

As part of ongoing work to obtain a reliable estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea-level rise, we present here volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for ten glaciers on western Nordenskiöld Land, central Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 1999-2012. On the basis of the pattern of scattering in theradargrams, we also analyse the hydrothermal structure of these glaciers

Ice volume estimates from ground-penetrating radar surveys, western Nordenskiöld Land glaciers, Svalbard

As part of ongoing work within the SvalGlac project aimed to obtain a reliable estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea level rise, in this contribution we present volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for ten glaciers on western Nordenskiöld Land, central Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 1999-2012, all of them except one within 2010-2012. The total area and volume of the ensemble are 113.38±0.09 km2 and 10.439±0.185 km3, respectively, while the individual areas, volumes and average ice thickness lie within 2.5-49.1 km2, 0.08-5.48 km3 and 29-108 m, respectively. The maximum recorded ice thickness, 265±15 m, corresponds to Fridtjovbreen, which has also the largest average thickness (108±1m). Available empirical formulae for Svalbard glaciers overestimate the total volume of these glaciers by 24% with respect to our calculation. On the basis of the pattern of scattering in the radargrams, we also analyse the hydrothermal structure of these glaciers. Nine out of ten are polythermal, while only one is entirely cold

Decelerated mass loss of Hurd and Johnsons Glaciers, Livingston Island, Antarctic Peninsula

A new 10 year surface mass balance (SMB) record of Hurd and Johnsons Glaciers, Livingston Island, Antarctica, is presented and compared with earlier estimates on the basis of local and regional meteorological conditions and trends.Since Johnsons is a tidewater glacier, we also include a calving flux calculation to estimate its total mass balance. The average annual SMB over the 10 year observation period 2002–11 is –0.15�0.10 m w.e. for Hurd Glacier and 0.05�0.10 m w.e. for Johnsons Glacier. Adding the calving losses to the latter results in a total mass balance of –0.09�0.10 m w.e. There has been a deceleration of the mass losses of these glaciers from 1957–2000 to 2002–11, which have nearly halved for both glaciers. We attribute this decrease in the mass losses to a combination of increased accumulation in the region and decreased melt. The increased accumulation is attributed to larger precipitation associated with the recent deepening of the circumpolar pressure trough, while the melt decrease is associated with lower summer surface temperatures during the past decade